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Abdulai, S F; Zayed, T; Taiwo, R; Ali, A H (2025) Hybrid statistical analysis of critical alignment factors in modular integrated construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Chen, Y; Fang, Q; Lan, Y (2025) Development of a modular assembling, suspended, and sliding scaffold. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Fang, X; Yang, L; Zhang, C; Yang, J; Zhou, W (2025) Large diameter shafts in fractured strata: Equipment and construction procedures. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Gao, H; Zou, L (2025) How to improve customer trust in residential quality: An analysis of quality information disclosure strategies considering blockchain. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Guha, P; Kar, S; Jha, K N (2025) Exploring leadership styles and their effect on the safety and quality performances in construction projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Guo, S (2025) Optimizing profit distribution in IPD projects: A fuzzy cooperative game approach to address resource-based input uncertainty. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Huang, X; Zhang, J; Meng, X; Wang, R; Li, J; Tao, X; Yang, Z; Li, L (2025) Verifiable safety path planning: Utilizing planar analysis for improved lifting operations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Ibrahim, A; Xu, J; Cheon, S; Wang, X; Nnaji, C (2025) Human-robot interaction in dynamic work environment: Implications for workers' situational awareness. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Jaskula, K; Kifokeris, D; Papadonikolaki, E; Rovas, D (2025) Blockchain-based decentralized common data environment: User requirements and conceptual framework. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Jeong, E; Jang, J; Kim, T W; Lee, S (2025) Divide-and-conquer-based stratified models for predicting precast concrete installation times. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Jezzini, Y; Assaad, R H; El-Adaway, I H (2025) Risk allocation model for price escalations in construction projects: Integrating bargaining game theory and probabilistic Bayesian modeling. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Karim, M T; Ahmed, S; Hoque, M N; Iorio, J; Abudayyeh, O (2025) Evaluating the management's role in addressing gender and racial disparities to promote DEI in the US construction industry: Exploratory study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Kumi, L; Jeong, J; Jeong, J; Mun, H (2025) Development of multimodal recommender system for advancing design for safety with expert validation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Li, Y; Liu, J; Du, X; Zhong, R Y (2025) Creating value from data resources: Research on a service ecosystem symbiosis model of digital transportation infrastructure. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Liu, C; González, V A; Lee, G; Davies, R; Cabrera-Guerrero, G; Zou, Y (2025) Assessing an immersive virtual reality-based simulation game capability to study the social mechanisms enabled by the Last Planner system in projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Liu, Y; Xiang, Q; Goh, Y M; Ye, G; Shao, Z; Safiena, S (2025) Exploring the mechanism of hazard detection failure of construction workers from a capability-demand matching perspective. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Martin, H; James, J; Chadee, A (2025) Exploring large language model AI tools in construction project risk assessment: ChatGPT limitations in risk identification, mitigation strategies, and user experience. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Mun, H; Jeong, J; Jeong, J; Kumi, L (2025) Statistical hypothesis test approach considering workers' thermal comfort to determine nonworking days in different climate zones. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Shen, W; Xue, J; Xiong, J; Zhai, X; Lee, S; Lu, J (2025) A social network-based approach for analyzing interproject risks in large-scale programs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Shiha, A; Elazhary, M; El-Adaway, I H (2025) Price adjustment clauses: Enhanced price volatility forecasting for construction materials. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords:
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/JCEMD4.COENG-15920
- Abstract:
Price adjustment clauses (PACs) are used by state departments of transportation (DOTs) to share the risk of material price fluctuations. Existing models that depict the price fluctuations of materials forecast a mean within a horizon while relying on the assumption of a constant volatility throughout that horizon. However, none of them examine whether the prices of construction material exhibit similar volatility following a sudden price surge or a price drop. The prospect of PACs and their associated trigger values is hindered in the absence of empirical assessments of their capacity to capture the volatilities in material prices. This paper fills this knowledge gap by adopting a methodology that comprised (1) data collection of the prices of materials; (2) forecasting their trends using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and long short-term memory (LSTM); and (3) augmenting the price forecasts with quantification of their asymmetric conditional volatilities using Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GJR-GARCH). The developed approach was demonstrated using the prices of asphalt, steel, cement, and fuel in Ohio; it can be applied to any other similar data set. Results indicate the existence of significant conditional volatility in the prices of asphalt, steel, and fuel. Further findings suggest that the prices of asphalt and steel are more volatile following a sudden price drop rather than following a price surge. Integration of ARIMA and GJR-GARCH models generates volatility ranges that accurately forecast the fluctuations of material prices in the 12-month forecasting horizon. Out-of-sample forecasts indicated that the GJR-GARCH range constitutes a viable alternative to confidence intervals of competing models. Examining asymmetric conditional volatility in material prices can alleviate the bias in assessing the PACs trigger values following an unstable period. The presented framework aids state DOTs and contractors in their risk sharing strategies in the context of PACs.
Sun, B; Wu, J; You, H; Du, J (2025) Estimating belief updates in AI-driven drone controls for urban search and rescue operations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Wang, J; Xiahou, X; Lin, Y; Liu, Y; Han, Z; Song, Y (2025) A novel approach for pipeline generation using a mixed GA and tree strategy. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Wang, J; Xu, Y; Fang, D; Liao, P C (2025) How project-based learning improves construction contract management training: Evidence from eye-tracking searching strategies for contract risk recognition performance. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Wang, X; Li, J; Wang, R; Zhang, J; Ma, G (2025) Automated evaluation and optimization of subgrade construction based on intelligent compaction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Wu, J; Yan, B; Sun, G; Liu, M; Li, Y; Zhou, C (2025) Research on the construction-forming model of a single-layer orthogonal saddle-shaped cable net with an opening. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Yang, S; Zhang, J; Xu, S; Deng, T; He, Q; Wang, P (2025) Work section planning for accompanying construction of extra-long tunnel and ballastless track of mountainous high-speed railways. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Yang, Y; Wei, Z; Zhang, Z; Xie, H (2025) Modeling the enablers for blockchain technology adoption in the construction supply chain. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Zhang, J; Jiang, S (2025) Construction safety decision-making system based on improved integration of case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).
Zhu, W; Li, J; Shen, K; Li, X (2025) Carbon dioxide emission reduction assessments of recycled aggregate concrete applications for infrastructure by incorporating vegetation carbon sink. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(9).