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Ahmadi, S Y; Lather, J I; Wittich, C E; Madson, K (2025) Current and future trends for resilient inland waterway transportation systems during flood disruptions. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Chammout, B; El-Adaway, I H (2025) Circular economy in construction: Decision-making factors and future research avenues. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Chen, G; Yan, Z; Hao, Y; Li, Q; Tian, Y (2025) BIM value creation through collaboration in construction projects: An empirical model with multiple collaborative behaviors. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Ejidike, C C; Mewomo, M C; Olawumi, T O; Wang, S; Buniya, M K (2025) Barriers to the adoption of smart building technology in developing countries: An empirical survey. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Ghosh, B; Karmakar, S (2025) Development and application of a digitalized construction quality document management system for advanced construction using building information modeling. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Guha, P; Kar, S; Jha, K N (2025) A framework to assess leadership quality of construction leaders. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Jin, H; Chan, M; Bai, Y (2025) Joint optimization of critical concession parameters for sustainable PPP contracts. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Karam, A H (2003) Marketing and architects in South Africa. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 10(6), 402–12.
Liao, L; Gan, C; Yang, J; Liang, Y (2025) Impacts of safety capacity and personalized safety training on construction workers' hazard recognition using eye-tracking technology. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Ling, F Y Y; Sim, W X L (2025) Mediating role of vocational interest in the relationship between personality and job satisfaction: Insights from cost engineers. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Liu, J; Li, J; Guo, D; Cui, Q; Yang, L; Wu, H (2025) Reliability evaluation of a shield tunnel waterproofing system in the life cycle stage based on a combination weighting method and cloud model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Liu, J; Li, W; Li, F; Zhao, X (2025) Chinese named entity recognition for bridge damage and defects based on text mining and natural language pretraining models. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Müller, C C; Elzomor, M (2025) Fostering a sustainable built environment by preparing a construction engineering workforce with sustainability key performance indicators. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Mehdipoor, A; Iordanova, I; Al-Hussein, M (2025) Enhancing the manufacturing process in light-gauge steel off-site construction using semiautomation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Mohammadi, P; Asgari, S; Rashidi, A; Alder, R (2025) Culvert inspection framework using hybrid xgboost and risk-based prioritization: Utah case study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Mollaei, A; Bachmann, C; Haas, C (2025) Evaluating the potential impact of building design strategies on material recovery during deconstruction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Palaneeswaran, E, Kumaraswamy, M and Ng, T (2003) Targeting optimum value in public sector projects through "best value"-focused contractor selection. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 10(6), 418–31.
Radzi, A R; Azmi, N F; Kamaruzzaman, S N; Rahman, R A (2025) Modeling the critical assessment criteria for construction readiness of BIM-based projects: PLS-SEM approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Salary, S; Reyes, M (2025) Identifying the impact of preconstruction elements on project budget. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Salem, M; Abdullah, M S; Islam, M S; Said, S O (2025) Subcontractors' BIM deployment in large-scale construction projects in the mena region. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Shehadeh, A; Alshboul, O; Tamimi, M (2025) Quantitative analysis of climate-adaptive pavement technologies: Mitigating environmental impact and enhancing economic viability in urban infrastructure. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Shin, Y J; Farrokh, E; Jung, J; Kang, H (2025) Optimizing tunnel boring machine operations in real time within defined constraints. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Sun, J; Murphy, M R; Hazlett, D G; Shuai, C; Gao, L (2025) Simulation-based framework for predicting construction workforce demand: A comparative analysis with multivariate LSTM-based seq2seq model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Utkucu, D; Sözer, H (2025) Modeling a mixed-mode cooling system with correlation to operable building facade openings: Mathematical logic integration of computational fluid dynamics and energy models. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Wang, P; Wang, K; Huang, Y; Fenn, P (2025) Probability, formation, and prediction of large-size construction cost overruns governed by a power-law distribution. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Bayesian classifier; formation mechanism; large-size cost overruns; power-law distribution; prediction; structural equation modeling
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/JCEMD4.COENG-16445
- Abstract:
Cost overruns persist in the current construction industry. Large-size cost overruns are especially detrimental to projects, but the literature has treated such overruns no differently from regular ones. This paper argues that strategies should be specifically developed to address large-size cost overruns because their occurrence is higher than perceived and their impact is more severe. To get a full picture of these events, the authors collected cost overrun data from 30,950 UK construction projects and plotted them into a probability distribution curve, which featured a bell-shaped major part representing regular cost overruns and a long right tail representing the large-size ones. Taking a bootstrap method based on the minimum Kolmogorov-Smirnov method, the authors demonstrated that the bell and the tail were governed by different laws. This suggested that large-size overruns should not be considered an extension of regular ones, and management strategies for large-size overruns should be specifically tailored. To this end, the authors further investigated 368 construction projects to understand the specific formation mechanism for large-size cost overruns, based on which a Bayesian classifier was established. The classifier was then tested by 431 real construction projects, showing the model achieved an accuracy rate of 97.2% and F1 score of 72.0% in practice. For general management strategies, improvements in plans and specifications and risk identification during project initiation and enhancement of communication throughout the project were suggested. For project-specific avoidance strategies, the Bayesian classifier could predict the occurrence of large-size cost overruns and simulate the effect of available improvements to assist in identifying the optimal avoidance strategy. This paper corrects the general perception of the severity of construction cost overruns, completes the understanding of the formation mechanism of large-size cost overruns, and provides a predictive model to help avoid large-scale cost overruns on a case-by-case basis.
Wang, R; Gong, D (2025) Abnormal behavior recognition algorithm in small sample scenarios for a utility tunnel project based on dcgan. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Yang, X; Wang, S; Jiang, Y; Wang, L; Li, P; Wang, S (2025) Theoretical and experimental analysis of stress variations in precast concrete segment linings during double-shield TBM excavation of subway tunnels. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Yao, Z; Chen, Z; Lee, Y (2025) A construction site layout planning study for dust reduction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Zhan, H; Hwang, B G; Jabbar, S B B A (2025) An integrated approach to assessing digitalization of integrated digital delivery projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Zhang, M; Liu, X; Li, Y (2025) Identity-based proactive human intrusion management in hazardous areas at construction sites: A deep learning-based method. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).
Zong, Z; Su, S; Diao, L; Ou, Y; Long, T (2025) Relationship between perceived occupational stigma and safety behavior of construction workers: Moderated mediation model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6).